Expected Goals

Expected Goals by Rory Smith is a captivating exploration of football's evolving landscape, where traditional tactics meet a new era defined by data analytics. This groundbreaking book dives deep into the seismic shifts that have reshaped how the world's most popular sport is played, coached, scouted, and understood.

Shortlisted for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year Award 2022, Expected Goals unravels the remarkable story of modern football’s data revolution. It uncovers the narrative behind the numbers, focusing on the curious and entrepreneurial individuals who foresaw the transformative potential of statistical analysis in football. These pioneers saw beyond the paradigm of measuring success purely by trophies and wins, envisioning a future where data could explain, enhance, and even predict the complexities of the game.

Central to this innovation is Chris Anderson, an academic with no prior experience in professional football. Anderson's perception of data as a tool for fundamental change challenged the sport’s established norms. His audacious goal was to penetrate football's insular culture by creating a club where data-driven decision-making became the core of its identity.

Smith chronicles Anderson’s ambitious journey and illustrates how his vision began to take root. The book reveals the groundbreaking ways clubs across the globe—from Liverpool to Leipzig and Brentford to Bayern Munich—have embraced data to identify emerging talents, devise novel strategies, and chart their paths to success. Through detailed anecdotes and insightful analysis, Smith captures the essence of how data analytics are not just changing the game but revolutionising it.

Expected Goals is more than just a story of algorithms and metrics; it’s about the people whose belief in data's potential has sparked a footballing metamorphosis. Rory Smith’s vivid storytelling and meticulous research offer readers an unparalleled look into how the sport's past, present, and future are being reshaped by the forces of innovation, science, and relentless human ingenuity.

This book is an essential read for anyone keen to understand the intricacies of modern football and the visionary minds that are driving its evolution. Whether you're a die-hard fan or a casual observer, Expected Goals provides an eye-opening perspective on how data is changing the beautiful game forever.