The History of Statistics

This magnificent book offers the first comprehensive exploration of the development of statistics from around 1700 to its establishment as a distinct and mature discipline by 1900. Stephen M. Stigler masterfully narrates how statistics emerged from the convergence of mathematical concepts and the demands of various applied sciences such as astronomy, geodesy, experimental psychology, genetics, and sociology.

In The History of Statistics, Stigler delves into numerous intriguing questions that uncover the evolution of statistical methods. How did scientists learn to combine measurements made under different conditions? And what led them to employ probability theory to assess the accuracy of their results? Stigler explores why statistical methods found successful application in astronomy long before they became significant in the social sciences. He also examines the paradox of the introduction of least squares pre-dating the discovery of regression by more than eighty years.

The book critically analyses the major works of prominent figures like Bernoulli, De Moivre, Bayes, Quetelet, and Lexis, often regarded as partial failures, and juxtaposes them with the triumphant contributions of Laplace, Galton, Edgeworth, Pearson, and Yule. Stigler reveals how Galton's probability machine, the quincunx, played a crucial role in leading to significant advancements in the late nineteenth century.

Stigler's emphasis is on the development of probability theory methods for measuring uncertainty in experimental and observational sciences, reducing uncertainty, and conceptualising quantitative studies in the social sciences. He meticulously describes the scientific contexts in which these methods evolved and pinpoints the conceptual or mathematical challenges that hindered the growth of mathematical statistics. Additionally, he highlights the crucial conceptual breakthroughs that allowed for significant progress.

Statisticians, historians of science, and social and behavioural scientists will find in this book a profound understanding of the use of statistical methods and a better comprehension of their promise and limitations. This scholarly endeavour, the result of ten years of research, is a compelling read for anyone interested in the humanistic study of science.

The History of Statistics will enlighten readers on the rich history and development of statistical methods and their integral role in various scientific advancements, while also providing a critical lens through which to appreciate both the potential and the boundaries of statistical techniques.