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What Are the Odds?
A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World
Brief Description
An exhilarating tour of the data that drives our world and how to make it work for all of us. Our world is awash in data. Streaming services track our viewing and listening habits to recommend movies and playlists. Government agencies analyse our credit card transactions...
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What Are the Odds?
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Using real-world examples, from brewing beer to finding a lost submarine, What Are the Odds? illuminates the core concepts of statistical thinking, asking not just what the data say but whether they’re any good. Mark Prell shows how to avoid spurious reasoning and how to identify data that have been cherry-picked, falsified, or are plain wrong.
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Description
An exhilarating tour of the data that drives our world and how to make it work for all of us.
Our world is awash in data. Streaming services track our viewing and listening habits to recommend movies and playlists. Government agencies analyse our credit card transactions to estimate the size of the economy. And artificial intelligence trains on massive quantities of text to answer the questions we ask it. If we want to understand how this deluge of information shapes our lives and even harness it ourselves to make smarter decisions, then we need statistics.
In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell shows that statistics consists of two interwoven strands: data and analysis. Just as important as asking what the data say is asking how reliable the data are. Through stories of centuries of statistical ingenuity, Prell teaches us how to apply the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking to determine the effectiveness of vaccines, build infrastructure to protect against natural disasters, and even plan for retirement.
We learn how to avoid spurious reasoning and, just as important, how to recognise and improve data that have been cherry-picked, falsified, or are just plain wrong. As Prell argues, becoming a statistician, even an amateur one, is about more than manipulating data—it's about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity.
Book Details
INFORMATION
ISBN: 9780674296367
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Format: Hardback
Date Published: 14 April 2026
Country: United States
Imprint: Harvard University Press
Illustration: 1 photo, 85 illus., 14 tables
Audience: Professional and scholarly
DIMENSIONS
Spine width: 35.0mm
Width: 156.0mm
Height: 235.0mm
Weight: 761g
Pages: 496
About the Author
Mark Prell has authored or coauthored academic articles, book chapters, and government studies in economics, statistical methodology, and data quality. Prior to retirement, he was a senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture. He has served as Co-Chair of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, which advises US statistical agencies, and taught economics and statistics at Johns Hopkins University.
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