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What Are the Odds?

A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World
By Mark Prell
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Brief Description
An exhilarating tour of the data that drives our world and how to make it work for all of us. Our world is awash in data. Streaming services track our viewing and listening habits to recommend movies and playlists. Government agencies analyse our credit card transactions... Read More
Format: Hardback
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Using real-world examples, from brewing beer to finding a lost submarine, What Are the Odds? illuminates the core concepts of statistical thinking, asking not just what the data say but whether they’re any good. Mark Prell shows how to avoid spurious reasoning and how to identify data that have been cherry-picked, falsified, or are plain wrong.

Book Hero Magic formatted this description to make it easier to read. While it's new and still learning, it may not be perfect - your feedback is welcome! Description

An exhilarating tour of the data that drives our world and how to make it work for all of us.

Our world is awash in data. Streaming services track our viewing and listening habits to recommend movies and playlists. Government agencies analyse our credit card transactions to estimate the size of the economy. And artificial intelligence trains on massive quantities of text to answer the questions we ask it. If we want to understand how this deluge of information shapes our lives and even harness it ourselves to make smarter decisions, then we need statistics.

In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell shows that statistics consists of two interwoven strands: data and analysis. Just as important as asking what the data say is asking how reliable the data are. Through stories of centuries of statistical ingenuity, Prell teaches us how to apply the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking to determine the effectiveness of vaccines, build infrastructure to protect against natural disasters, and even plan for retirement.

We learn how to avoid spurious reasoning and, just as important, how to recognise and improve data that have been cherry-picked, falsified, or are just plain wrong. As Prell argues, becoming a statistician, even an amateur one, is about more than manipulating data—it's about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity.

Book Details

INFORMATION

ISBN: 9780674296367

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Format: Hardback

Date Published: 14 April 2026

Country: United States

Imprint: Harvard University Press

Illustration: 1 photo, 85 illus., 14 tables

Audience: Professional and scholarly

DIMENSIONS

Spine width: 35.0mm

Width: 156.0mm

Height: 235.0mm

Weight: 761g

Pages: 496

Collections

Computing & Technology Education & Reference Mark Prell Non-Fiction Science & Nature

About the Author

Mark Prell has authored or coauthored academic articles, book chapters, and government studies in economics, statistical methodology, and data quality. Prior to retirement, he was a senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture. He has served as Co-Chair of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, which advises US statistical agencies, and taught economics and statistics at Johns Hopkins University.

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