Pre-order
1
of
1
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
Series: Pelican Books
Brief Description
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And...
Read More
Format: Paperback / softback
$3099
Unit price
/
Unavailable
Pre-order
Releases
22nd
September 2026
(Approx. Date)
Pre-order "The Art of Uncertainty" now to secure your copy from our first shipment
Found a better price? Request a price match
The Art of Uncertainty
$3099
Unit price
/
Unavailable
Book Hero Magic formatted this description to make it easier to read. While it's new and
still learning, it may not be perfect - your
feedback is welcome!
Description
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck, and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience.
Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.
Series: Pelican Books
View all-
The Art of Statistics
In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter, a renowned statistician and former president of the Royal Statistical Society, demystifies the complex world of statistical science. As data becomes the new currency and with the rise of data science as a key discipline, the ability to understand and analyse statistical information is more crucial than ever. Spiegelhalter's writing offers an engaging...Paperback$2500Elsewhere:$2800Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence by Melanie Mitchell offers an insightful and engaging journey into the heart of one of the most fascinating and rapidly advancing fields of our time. Bridging the gap between complex scientific concepts and everyday understanding, Mitchell's book delves into the inner workings of AI, presenting cutting-edge research and real-world applications in a manner that is both accessible and...Paperback$2100Elsewhere:$2400Unit price /UnavailableBackorderShips mid August -
Economics: The User's Guide
In Economics: The User's Guide, bestselling author Ha-Joon Chang demystifies the often intimidating field of economics and makes it accessible to everyone. By cutting through the jargon and complexity, Chang ensures that the powerful concepts and ideas that shape our world are easily understood. This isn’t just a textbook for students or professionals; it's a guide for any curious mind...Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Think Like an Anthropologist
Essential reading for anyone who wants a fresh take on our cultural values that goes beyond economics, psychology, and politics. What is anthropology? What can it tell us about the world around us? And why do we need it? For well over one hundred years, social and cultural anthropologists have traversed the world from Melanesia to suburban England, Taipei to...Paperback$2200Elsewhere:$2400Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Feminisms
An authoritative and original history of global feminism from an award-winning historian. How has feminism developed? What have feminists achieved? What can we learn from the global history of feminism? Feminism is the ongoing story of a profound historical transformation. Despite being repeatedly written off as a political movement that has achieved its aim of female liberation, it has been...Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Basic Income
The essential guide to understanding the real economics behind a universal basic income Shouldn't everyone receive a stake in society's wealth? Could we create a fairer world by granting a guaranteed income to all? What would this mean for our health, wealth and happiness? A basic income is a regular cash transfer from the state, received by all individual citizens....Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
The Government of No One
A magisterial study of one of the most controversial political movements that shows how anarchism works. Often associated with chaos or disorder, anarchy defies definition and routinely gets a bad press. And yet, from Occupy to Pussy Riot, Noam Chomsky to David Graeber, this philosophical and political movement is as relevant as ever. Contrary to popular perception, different strands of...Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks -
Architecture
A groundbreaking history of architecture told through the relationship between buildings and energy. Reducing energy use is the single biggest challenge facing architecture today. From the humblest prehistoric hut to the imposing monuments of Rome or Egypt to super-connected modern airports, buildings in every era and place have been shaped by the energy available for their construction and running. This...Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks -
Aristotle
Why has Aristotle had such an astounding influence on the world? What are his key ideas? What can he still teach us today? There is in Athens a rather plain ruin; a simple courtyard lined with fragments of wall. Yet, this little patch of land has a claim to be the most significant place in human history. It is the...Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks -
The Power of Language
An acclaimed psycholinguist reveals how language shapes our brain - and moulds the way we look at the world. Why should we learn more than one language? Can it change the way we think? Does it have the power to transform how we see the world? You may think you speak only one language. In fact, your mind is interpreting...Paperback$2700Elsewhere:$3000Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks -
Object-Oriented Ontology
A new introduction to one of the most influential philosophical movements in contemporary intellectual life. What is reality, really? Are humans more special or important than the non-human objects we perceive? How does this change the way we understand the world? We humans tend to believe that things are only real in as much as we perceive them, an idea...Paperback$2200Elsewhere:$2400Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks -
National Populism
A crucial new guide to one of the most important phenomena of our time—the rise of populism in the West. A crucial new guide to one of the most urgent political phenomena of our time—the rise of national populism. Across the West, there is a rising tide of people who feel excluded, alienated from mainstream politics, and increasingly hostile towards...Paperback$2600Elsewhere:$2800Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks
Book Details
INFORMATION
ISBN: 9780241658635
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
Format: Paperback / softback
Date Published: 18 September 2025
Country: United Kingdom
Imprint: Pelican
Audience: General / adult
DIMENSIONS
Spine width: 35.0mm
Width: 111.0mm
Height: 181.0mm
Weight: 350g
Pages: 512
About the Author
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017 – 2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020.
Also by David Spiegelhalter
View all-
The Art of Statistics
In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter, a renowned statistician and former president of the Royal Statistical Society, demystifies the complex world of statistical science. As data becomes the new currency and with the rise of data science as a key discipline, the ability to understand and analyse statistical information is more crucial than ever. Spiegelhalter's writing offers an engaging...Paperback$2500Elsewhere:$2800Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
The Art of Statistics
Delve into the world of numbers and discover how statistics can shed light on some of life's most pressing issues in The Art of Statistics by David Spiegelhalter. This enlightening book offers an engaging exploration of statistical science, showing readers how to wield the power of data analysis to gain meaningful insights into everyday problems. Spiegelhalter masterfully guides readers through...Paperback$4700Elsewhere:$4800Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Covid By Numbers
A vital and concise data-driven analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health, and crime? This...Hardback$2400Elsewhere:$2600Unit price /UnavailableAvailableShips in 4-6 weeks -
The Norm Chronicles
Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39-hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise, and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two...PaperbackSold Out -
The Art of Uncertainty
From the UK's 'statistical national treasure', a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty. We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know? And what role do chance, luck, and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order...HardbackSold Out
More from Science & Nature
View all-
Murder Under the Mistletoe
BOOK 4 IN THE BESTSELLING CANON CLEMENT MYSTERY SERIES 'The best of the new cosy crime writers' Daily Telegraph 'You'll want to take a front row pew in Champton while this delicious series unfolds' Janice Hallett It is Christmas Day and at Champton Rectory, Canon Daniel Clement and his mother Audrey are joined by the residents and guests of the...Paperback$2799Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
John and Paul
THE SUNDAY TIMES AND NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER LONGLISTED FOR THE BAILLIE GIFFORD PRIZE FOR NON-FICTION 'A triumph.' Deborah Levy, New Statesman 'Tremendous.' Alwyn Turner, The Times 'Revelatory.' Simon Schama, Financial Times 'The gold standard of Beatles books.' Anthony Quinn, Observer 'As enthralling and astonishing as their music.' Jon Dennis, Sunday Telegraph 'A masterpiece.' Dylan Jones, Evening Standard '[Ian Leslie]...Paperback$2800Elsewhere:$3299Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Raising Hare
THE INSTANT SUNDAY TIMES AND NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER SHORTLISTED FOR THE WOMEN'S PRIZE FOR NON-FICTION 2025 SHORTLISTED FOR WATERSTONES BOOK OF THE YEAR 2024 SHORTLISTED FOR THE HATCHARDS AND BIOGRAPHERS' CLUB FIRST BIOGRAPHY PRIZE A BOOK OF THE YEAR FOR THE HAY FESTIVAL, SUNDAY TIMES, THE TIMES, FINANCIAL TIMES, SPECTATOR AND iNEWS 'A beautiful book' - ANGELINA JOLIE 'I...Paperback$2400Elsewhere:$2799Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
What If? 10th Anniversary Edition
CELEBRATING TEN YEARS OF THE MILLION-SELLING POP SCIENCE CLASSIC WITH A SPECIAL EDITION. THIS IS WHAT IF? . . . x10. THE SUNDAY TIMES BESTSELLER 'Nerd royalty' — BEN GOLDACRE 'Totally brilliant' — TIM HARFORD 'Required reading across the world' — NEW YORK TIMES From the creator of the wildly popular xkcd.com, experience hilarious and informative answers to important questions...Hardback$4200Elsewhere:$5000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Nuclear War
The Sunday Times bestselling non-fiction thriller that has to be read to be believed. Baillie Gifford shortlisted, a favourite of Steven Bartlett, with an average reader rating of 4.6, sure to be a mass-market hit. Up to now, no one outside of official circles has known exactly what would happen if a rogue state launched a nuclear missile at the...Paperback$2500Elsewhere:$2800Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
The Anxious Generation
A powerful argument for reclaiming childhood—and all human relationships—from the online world, from the influential social psychologist and international bestselling author. Jonathan Haidt has spent his career speaking truth and wisdom in some of the most difficult spaces—communities polarised by politics and religion, campuses battling culture wars, and now the mental health emergency hitting teenagers today in many countries around...Paperback$2299Elsewhere:$3000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Prisoners of Geography
Prisoners of Geography looks at the past, present, and future to offer crucial insights into one of the major factors that determine world history – because if you don’t know geography, you’ll never have the full picture. Originally published in 2015, this completely revised and updated edition brings it up to date with the events and trends of the past...Paperback$2899Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Booker PrizeOrbital
Winner of the Booker Prize 2024. Chair of the judges, Edmund de Waal, describes the winner as 'a book about a wounded world' adding that the panel's 'unanimity about Orbital recognises its beauty and ambition'. Life on our planet as you've never seen it before. A team of astronauts in the International Space Station collect meteorological data, conduct scientific experiments...Paperback$2200Elsewhere:$2600Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Diddly Squat: Home to Roost
It's been another memorable year on Diddly Squat Farm - will the chickens finally come home to roost? Welcome back to Clarkson's Farm. The spring crop failed. Farming sheep, pigs, and cows was hardly more lucrative (better off breeding ostriches...) But in the face of uncooperative weather, bureaucracy, and the world's persistent refusal to recognise his genius, our hero's not...Paperback$2600Elsewhere:$3000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
The Place of Tides
To save the world, we have to start somewhere. One afternoon many years ago, James Rebanks met an old woman on a remote Norwegian island. She lived and worked alone on a tiny rocky outcrop, caring for wild ducks and gathering their down. Hers was a centuries-old trade that had once made men and women rich, but had long been...Paperback$3000Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
Ultra-Processed People
Launching the runaway bestseller with ambitions to be the biggest non-fiction paperback of the year IT'S NOT YOU. IT'S THE FOOD. "If you only read one diet or nutrition book in your life, make it this one" - Bee Wilson "You've got to get this book in your life . . . Completely compelling . . . Read a page...Paperback$2500Elsewhere:$2800Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow -
The Island of Missing Trees
The Island of Missing Trees by Elif Shafak is a captivating and poignant novel that delves into the intertwined lives of two star-crossed lovers in war-torn Cyprus and their enduring legacy decades later. This Sunday Times bestselling novel intricately weaves themes of love, loss, and identity amidst a backdrop of cultural and historical turmoil. Set in 1974 on the island...Paperback$2300Elsewhere:$2600Unit price /UnavailableIn StockShips tomorrow
Why buy from us?
Book Hero is not a chain store or big box retailer. We're an independent 100% NZ-owned business on a mission to help more Kiwis rediscover a love of books and reading!
Service & Delivery
Our warehouse in Auckland holds over 100,000 books, toys, board games and puzzles in-stock so you're not waiting for your order to arrive from overseas.
Auckland Bookstore
We're primarily an online store, but for your convenience you can pick up your order for free from our bookstore, which is right next door to our warehouse in Hobsonville.
Our Gifting Service
Books make wonderful thoughtful gifts and we're here to help with gift-wrapping and cards. We can even send your gift directly to your loved one.
