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The Big Bet

Prediction Markets and the Future of Democracy
By Michael Auerbach
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Brief Description
What happens when democracy becomes just another tradeable commodity? The first book on the phenomenon of prediction markets - and how they are reshaping the world. A brilliant exploration of the phenomenon of prediction markets that asks: what happens when democracy becomes another commodity? Prediction markets... Read More
Format: Paperback / softback
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Releases 26th January 2027 (Approx. Date) Pre-order  "The Big Bet" now to secure your copy from our first shipment

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Book Hero Magic formatted this description to make it easier to read. While it's new and still learning, it may not be perfect - your feedback is welcome! Description

What happens when democracy becomes just another tradeable commodity? The first book on the phenomenon of prediction markets - and how they are reshaping the world.

A brilliant exploration of the phenomenon of prediction markets that asks: what happens when democracy becomes another commodity?

Prediction markets are sweeping the world, fundamentally changing the nature of gambling - and the very ways in which we attempt to divine the future. Posed as binary 'Yes/No' questions about future events, prediction markets allow any difference of opinion - whether on pop culture or politics, wars or assassinations - to be financialised. A regulatory minefield with moral implications that divide nations, governments and bettors, they have proved as effective at accurately predicting the timing of missile strikes as they have at calling the outcomes of elections.

But are these markets really a new phenomenon? And what does it mean when those tasked with safeguarding democracy hold financial stakes in its volatility?

From Renaissance Rome, where merchants wagered on papal conclaves, through nineteenth-century London's wartime coffee house gossip, to the Pentagon's ill-fated terrorism futures exchange and blockchain-based betting on Polymarket today, The Big Bet tells the gripping five-hundred-year story of a permissive regime that no one designed and no one voted for.

Drawing on deep expertise, Michael Auerbach examines how these markets are changing our world, and what they mean for the future where democracy becomes just another commodity to be priced and traded. Because prediction markets are not an anomaly - they are the logical endpoint of a society that has applied market capitalism to every aspect of life. And in a world where everything is a wager and nothing is off limits, knowing where the chips will fall matters more than ever.

Book Details

INFORMATION

ISBN: 9781847929709

Publisher: Vintage Publishing

Format: Paperback / softback

Date Published: 26 January 2027

Country: United Kingdom

Imprint: The Bodley Head Ltd

Audience: General / adult, Tertiary education, Professional and scholarly

DIMENSIONS

Spine width: 23.0mm

Width: 153.0mm

Height: 234.0mm

Weight: 394g

Pages: 352

Collections

Computing & Technology Education & Reference Finance & Economics Finance & Investment Michael Auerbach Non-Fiction Non-Fiction Pre-Orders Penguin Books Politics & Current Affairs Pre-order Books Pre-orders Pre-orders by Release Date

About the Author

Michael Auerbach is executive chairman of Lamplighter Group, a geopolitical intelligence and strategic advisory firm with offices in London, New York, and Abu Dhabi, and founder of Subversive Capital, an investment firm focused on frontier markets. He previously spent over a decade as a partner at Albright Stonebridge Group. He serves as lead independent director of Canaccord Genuity and lives in New York.

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