Triumph of the Optimists

Presents a comprehensive analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This book also provides evidence on the long-term equity risk premium - the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks.

This will become the definitive empirical basis for analysis of the world's capital markets over the twentieth century. It is an important work of scholarship; no one else has calculated the equity premium of a large number of countries over the long term. In doing so, the book contributes to the very lively debate on the magnitude of the equity premium and will make a splash. -- William Goetzmann, Yale University Recent years have seen unprecedented public interest in the stock market, but there is a tendency for investors to concentrate on recent U.S. stock market performance. Progress in understanding financial markets requires a much longer timeframe and a global perspective. This book presents and analyzes data from many countries in a simple, standardized way that makes comparisons easy. It makes a number of extremely important points and goes well beyond simple summaries of average returns and historical volatilities to look at such issues as seasonality and industrial structure. -- John Campbell, Harvard University No investor can afford to risk a penny in the markets without studying this book and absorbing its fascinating lessons. That advice applies whether you are professional or amateur, a youngster or hardened from experience, bold or conservative. This book is history at its most challenging and illuminating. The facts are astonishing, the presentation dazzling, the analysis brilliant, and the lessons profound. -- Peter L. Bernstein, author of "Capital Ideas" and "Against the Gods" This is an important addition to the investment literature and will be widely used by both the academic and business community. To have the scope of data and analysis contained in this book available in one place represents a major contribution and improvement over what is now available. -- Martin J. Gruber, New York University

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