{"title":"Series: Working Guides to Estimating \u0026 Forecasting","description":null,"products":[{"product_id":"principles-process-and-practice-of-professional-number-juggling-by-alan-jones-9781138063969","title":"Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003ePrinciples, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling\u003c\/em\u003e (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating \u0026amp; Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and ‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis volume also underlines the importance of ‘data normalisation’ in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThis book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Unknown","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47607456530668,"sku":"9781138063969","price":170.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/9781138063969-principles-process-and-practice-of-professional-number-juggling.jpg?v=1778165316"},{"product_id":"risk-opportunity-uncertainty-and-other-random-models-by-alan-jones-9781138065055","title":"Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eRisk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models\u003c\/em\u003e (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development costs are somewhat random. Under certain conditions, they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThe major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these is the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity, and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips on things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variables, determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and queues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Unknown","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47607519805676,"sku":"9781138065055","price":170.0,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/9781138065055-risk-opportunity-uncertainty-and-other-random-models.jpg?v=1778169677"}],"url":"https:\/\/bookhero.co.nz\/collections\/series-working-guides-to-estimating-forecasting.oembed","provider":"Book Hero","version":"1.0","type":"link"}